International Sanctions and Economic Restructuring: Modelling the BRICS Monetary Initiative as Counter-Power
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Keywords
economics, international economics, forecast, BRICS, monetary policy
Abstract
This paper explores the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) monetary initiative in the context of international sanctions and economic restructuring. Since 2014, Russia, faced with severe sanctions after the annexation of Crimea, has reoriented its trade relations towards non-Western partners, particularly within the BRICS. This situation has catalysed thinking about the creation of a common currency to reduce dependence on the US dollar and the euro, currencies often used to exert economic pressure. The BRICS currency project aims to strengthen the economic autonomy of member countries and develop an alternative to Western-dominated monetary systems. The study models the impact of sanctions on Russia’s trade flows using the ARIMAX model, incorporating exogenous variables such as economic sanctions. By simulating different scenarios (lifting, maintaining, or intensifying sanctions), the projections highlight the adaptability of Russian trade flows in the face of geopolitical and economic changes.
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