BRICS and Beyond:Türkiye's Strategic Drift from the West and Its Impact on Global Geopolitics

Abstract

This paper examines Türkiye’s strategic pivot toward BRICS membership and its implications for global geopolitics, analyzing the factors driving Türkiye’s eastward drift and its impact on existing alliances and global governance structures. The research employs a qualitative multi-method approach, combining comparative historical analysis, document analysis, and a systematic literature review, utilizing a theoretical framework integrating neoclassical realism, complex interdependence, and constructivism to provide comprehensive analysis. Neoclassical realism proves particularly relevant in explaining how President Erdoğan’s domestic consolidation of power—evidenced by constitutional changes expanding presidential authority and centralization of foreign policy decision-making—has enabled Türkiye’s pursuit of strategic autonomy, validating Rose’s (1998) emphasis on how domestic political structures mediate systemic pressures. Complex interdependence is validated through Türkiye’s multifaceted economic relationships, where it simultaneously maintains a customs union with the EU while increasing trade with BRICS nations (BRICS imports rising from 15% to 23.5% between 2010-2022), demonstrating Keohane and Nye’s (1977) core premise that states manage multiple channels of interaction across different issue areas without hierarchical prioritization. Constructivism’s relevance is confirmed by observable identity shifts in Turkish foreign policy discourse, particularly the AKP government’s explicit invocation of Ottoman heritage in foreign policy speeches, the reframing of Türkiye as a “central country” rather than a “bridge,” and polling data showing increased public affinity with non-Western powers (from 28% to 41% between 2015-2023), illustrating how ideational factors reshape state interests as theorized by Wendt (1999). The study reveals that Türkiye’s BRICS bid represents a sophisticated attempt to maximize strategic autonomy in an increasingly multipolar world order, illuminating tensions between Türkiye’s NATO commitments and potential BRICS membership while identifying economic opportunities and challenges. The analysis demonstrates how middle powers like Türkiye can influence global power transitions and reshape alliance structures, advancing understanding of middle power behavior during global power transitions and challenging assumptions about Cold War-era alliances’ durability. This research provides novel insights into the interplay between identity, strategic autonomy, and foreign policy formation in the context of emerging alternative governance structures, contributing to broader theoretical debates about alliance reconfiguration, BRICS expansion, global governance, middle power strategy, multipolarity, and strategic autonomy in Turkish foreign policy.