Natural Gas Production in Mozambique and the Political Risk of Islamic Militancy

Abstract

The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost portion of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home to Africa’s three largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, and these projects have attracted many of the world’s major multinational energy companies, accompanied by massive LNG investments. There can be little doubt that the discovery of rich gas reserves is a potential game changer for the Mozambican economy and development agenda. It is potentially an opportunity for the rapid advancement of a country that currently ranks close to the bottom of the United Nation’s Human Development Index. However, despite the billions in investments from major multinational energy companies, the people of Cabo Delgado are yet to see the material benefit from these projects. One of the biggest risks to investors in the LNG industry is the many unknowns pertaining to the threat posed by the militant Islamic movement, Ansar al-Sunna, which has especially been active since 2017 in the Cabo Delgado province. In view of this, this article assesses Mozambique’s LNG industry and the political risks associated with the insurgent movement’s intention to establish an Islamic caliphate in the Cabo Delgado area.