Change and Contradiction: Hungary’s Foreign Policy Across its 2011 and 2024 European Council Presidencies

Abstract

This study traces the significant alterations in Hungary’s national identity and strategic culture between its 2011 and 2024 presidencies of the Council of the European Union, highlighting how these shifts have reshaped the country’s foreign policy orientation and behaviour in the international system. Situated against the backdrop of Hungary’s unique historical experiences—including the long shadow of Trianon, decades of communist rule, and the post-1991 imperative of Europeanization—the paper seeks to clarify how Hungary moved from a firmly Westward-leaning, Euro-Atlantic trajectory toward a more sovereignty-centred and identity-driven approach to diplomacy. The objective is to examine how these internal reconfigurations have informed Hungary’s contemporary foreign policy choices and the tensions they have produced within the EU. Methodologically, the study employs qualitative content analysis of core documents such as the Fundamental Law (2011) and Hungary’s post-presidency foreign policy programme, complemented by discourse analysis of speeches made by key decision makers, most notably Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. This mixed qualitative approach enables the systemic identification of recurring narratives and identity markers visibly shaping Hungarian foreign policy. The findings suggest that Hungary’s recent foreign policy conduct reflects not episodic populist opportunism but rather a coherent recalibration of strategic culture shaped by longstanding grievances, post-communist identity reconstruction, and a recognition of shifting global power realities. This recalibration is evident through policies such as the Eastern Opening, strategic neutrality in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the securitization of migration and Hungary’s selective veto usage within EU and NATO frameworks. The study concludes that Hungary’s evolving foreign policy posture provides valuable insight into how identity, populism, and geopolitics intersect to redefine the external behaviour of small states within a transforming European and global order.