Crisis of Trust and Military Takeovers in West Africa: Analyzing Factors and Citizen Reactions in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9611-9254
Abstract
The recurrent military coups in West Africa, with the most recent cases in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, point to an increasing crisis of trust between citizens and their governments. According to the Colpus 2023 report, military coups have increased significantly across the African
continent since 2020, indicating the deterioration of democratic systems due to diverse political, social, and economic causes. Although each country has a distinct context, a variety of interacting factors encouraged military takeover resulting in a worrying pattern spanning history, politics, and geopolitics. Drawing from secondary data including media reports, peer reviewed research, reports from international organizations, and grey literature, this paper offers conceptual, and comparative account of this development. The paper highlights how governance failures, rampant corruption, insecurity from violent extremist groups, and socioeconomic inequalities contribute to eroding public trust. The significance of this study lies in its contribution to both scholarship and policy by providing insights into interplay between governance, security, and societal trust and advances theoretical debates on democratic resilience and coup prevention for the future of the region
References
African Union. (2020). African Union high-level forum addresses unconstitutional changes of government in Africa. African Union [online]. Available from: https://au.int/en/articles/african- union-high-level-forum-addresses-unconstitutional-changes- government-africa [accessed 22 June 2025].
Aina, F., and Nyei, I.A (2023). Why civilians welcomed the recent coup in West Africa. Al Jazeera [online], 11 February. Available from: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/2/11/
why-have-civilians-welcomed-the-recent-coups-in-west-africa [accessed 1 August 2024].
Al Jazeera news, (2021). Malian Timeline: From military coup to interim leaders removed. Retrieved from Al Jazeera [online], 25 May. Available from: https://www.aljazeera.com/ news/2021/5/25/timeline-what-happened-in-mali-since-a- military-coup-in-august [accessed 15 February 2025].
Birru, J.G (2022). 10 conflicts to worry about in 2022: The Sahel.
ACLED. [online]. Available from: https://acleddata.com/ report/10-conflicts-worry-about-2022-sahel [accessed 1 August 2024].
Adetuyi, A. (2021). Military coup and its effect on the democratization process in Mali and in the region. IPSS Policy Brief, 15(5), pp.1-10.
Ajala, O. (2023). Understanding the crisis of democracy in West Africa and the Sahel. Geneva Centre for Security Policy [online]. Available from https://www.gcsp.ch/sites/default/ files/2024-12/in-focus12-ajala-democracy-sahel.pdf [accessed 2 August 2024].
Afrobarometer. (2024). African insights 2024: Democracy at risk – the people’s perspective. Afrobarometer [online]. Available
from https://www.afrobarometer.org/feature/flagship-report/ Afrobarometer [accessed 25 January 2025].
Afrobarometer. (2023). Malians, though eager for change from failing state and economy, still demand democracy (Survey Round AD386). Afrobarometer [online], 24 August. Available from: https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad386-malians- though-eager-change-failing-state-and-economy-still-demand- democracy/ [accessed 25 January 2025].
Bagayoko, N. (2024). L’armée française au Sahel: un corpus doctrinal à l’épreuve. Politique étrangère, 241(1), pp.121-135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3917/pe.241.0121
Chin, J.J., Carter, D.B. and Wright, J.G. (2021). The varieties of coups d’état: introducing the colpus dataset. International studies quarterly [online], 65(4), pp. 1040-1051. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab058 [accessed 2 August 2024]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab058
Crisis Group. (2024). What Turmoil in ECOWAS Means for Nigeria and Regional Stability [online]. Available from https://www. crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria-sahel/what-turmoil- ecowas-means-nigeria andregionalstability#:~:text=The%20 split%20in%20ECOWAS%20poses,Nigeria’s%20 immediate%20sphere%20of%20influence [accessed 25
January 2025].
Demuynck, M. and Böhm, M. (2023). Unraveling the Niger coup and its implications for violent extremism in the Sahel. International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) Den Haag [online], 4 August. Available from https://www.icct.nl/publication/ unravelling-niger-coup-and-its-implications-violent-extremism- sahel [accessed 5 February 2025].
Espelund, G. (2023). Antifransk trend kan slå mot terrorbekämpning.
Utrikespolitiska institutet [online]. Available from: https:// www.ui.se/utrikesmagasinet/analyser/2023/september/ antifransk-trend -kan-sla-mot-terrorbekampning/ [accessed 5 February 2025].
Eizenga, D. (2021). Military Coups in Burkina Faso. Democratization and Military Coups in Africa, 51. Available from: doi. org/10.5771/9781793643070 [accessed 5 February 2025]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5040/9781666988994.ch-2
Eko, L. (2025). The force of argument versus the argument of force. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/jj.28757324.11
In: Eko, L. ed. The anglophone question and postcolonial hegemony in Cameroon Vol 2: The past that did not pass. Denver, USA: Spears Books, p.194.
Fain, E., Issaev, L. and Korotayev, A. (2024). Coupvolution as a mechanism of regime change in the Sahel. In: Besenyö, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-53429-4_7
J., Issaev, L. and Korotayev, A. eds. Terrorism and political contention: New perspectives on North Africa and the Sahel region. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, pp. 133-150.
Isilow, H. and Basaran, E. (2023). Paradox of Africa’s Sahel: Rich in minerals but in the grip of grinding poverty. Anadolu Agency [online], 11 October. Available from: https://www.aa.com.tr/ en/world/paradox-of-africas-sahel-rich-in-minerals-but-in- the-grip-of-grinding-poverty/3015838# [accessed 5 February 2025].
International Crisis Group. (2025). What Malians mean when they talk about sovereignty (with Comfort Ero). International Crisis Group [online], 18 July. Available from: https://www. crisisgroup.org/africa/mali/what-malians-mean-when-they-
talk-about-sovereignty-comfort-ero [accessed 25 July 2025]. International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. (2023). Unravelling the
Niger coup and its implications for violent extremism in the
Sahel. International Centre for Counter-Terrorism [online], 4 August. Available from: https://icct.nl/publication/unravelling- niger-coup-and-its-implications-violent-extremism-sahel [accessed 5 February 2025].
Kipo-Sunyehzi, D. D. and Lambon, P. J. (2025). Military coups in West Africa: An analysis of the formation of the alliance of Sahel. Africa review [online], 17(3), pp. 237-250. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1163/09744061-bja10259 [accessed 25 July 2025]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1163/09744061-bja10259
Kelly, C. L. (2025). Democracy, civilian governance, and the security sector in West Africa and the Sahel. South central review [online], 42(1), pp. 30-36. Available from: DOI:10.1353/ scr.2025.a961447 [accessed 20 July 2025]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/scr.2025.a961447
Kaledzi, I. (2023). Why ex-French colonies in Africa seem beset by
coups. DW News [online], 30 August. https://www.dw.com/ en/africa-military-coups-former-french-colonies/a-66530922 [accessed 2 December 2024].
Levine, J. (2025). The continuing cycle and sudden surge in military coups across the Sahel: What it means for human rights and democracy in the region and why it matters. In: Zajda, J. and Vissing, Y. eds. Globalisation and human rights for democracy and social justice. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, pp. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-80297-3_4
-65.
Lefdal, K. (2024). Unpacking the contemporary coup wave in the Sahel: a case study of coups d’état in Mali & Niger (2020- 2023) [unpublished]. Master’s dissertation, University of Oslo.
Mavedzenge, J. A. (2025). Revisiting the African Union’s strategy on unconstitutional changes of governments in Africa. African journal of legal studies [online], 17(1), pp. 79-104. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1163/17087384-bja10108 [accessed 25 July 2025]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1163/17087384-bja10108
Mahmoud, S. and Taifouri, M. (2023). The coups d’état of the Sahel region: Domestic causes and international competition. Arab Center Washington DC [online], 27 September. Available from: https://arabcenterdc.org/
resource/the-coups-detat-of-the-sahel-region-domestic- causesandinternationalcompetition/#:~:text=Many%20 motives%20and%20circumstances%20have,challenge%20t- o%20the%20region’s%20states [accessed 5 December 2025].
Oduoye, M. O., Ubechu, S. C., Zafar, H., Noor, Z., Oyeleke, U. A. and Agbeyewo, G. T. (2024). Humanitarian crisis amid the military coup in Niger republic; what went wrong? Health science reports [online], 7(6), p. e2180. Available from: doi: 10.1002/ hsr2.2180 [accessed 25 February 2025]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/hsr2.2180
ORB International. (2025). Niger: The latest military coup in the Sahel. ORB International [online]. Available from: https://orb- international.com/niger-the-latest-military-coup-in-the-sahel/ [accessed 20 July 2025].
Obinna, G. S. and Semudara, O. C. (2024). Resurgence of coup d’état in Africa in an era of mass democratisation: A study of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali experiences. African journal of law, political research and administration [online], 7(4), pp. 49-62. Available from: doi: 10.52589/ajlpra-48otnsbt [accessed 2 March 2025]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52589/AJLPRA-48OTNSBT
Powell, J. M. and Thyne C. L. (2011). Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset. Journal of peace research, 48(2), pp.249-259. Available from: doi: 10.1177/0022343310397436 [accessed 17 June 2024]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310397436
Reuters. (2024). Three West African junta-led states quit ECOWAS regional block. Reuters [online], 28 January. Available from: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/niger-mali-burkina- faso-say-they-are-leaving-ecowas-regional-block-2024-01-28/ [accessed 2 March 2025].
Ronceray, M. (2023). Can ECOWAS still defend democracy in West Africa after the Niger coup? ECDPM [online], 11 September. Available from: https://ecdpm.org/work/can-ecowas-still- defend-democracy-west-africa-after-niger-coup [accessed 17
June 2024].
Silas, D., Ayeni, F. and Shuaibu, I. J. (2025). The resurgence of undemocratic regimes and socio-economic challenges in Africa: a critical assessment of the 2023 military coup in Niger Republic. British journal of interdisciplinary research [online], 2(7), 109-138. Available from: doi: https://doi. org/10.31039/bjir.v2i7.59 [accessed 25 July 2025]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31039/bjir.v2i7.59
Souare, I. K. (2009). The AU and the challenge of unconstitutional changes of government in Africa. ISS Paper No. 197. Available from: https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/105906/P197.pdf [accessed 2 June 2024].
Thompson, W. R. (1973). The grievances of military coup- makers (No. 47). Sage Publications (CA).
Taruvinga, G.R. (2023). The resurgence of military coups in Africa: The case of West Africa and the Sahel. In: Akinola, A.O., ed. Contemporary issues on governance, conflict and security in Africa. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, pp. 147-157. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-29635-2_9
Thurston, A. (2024). Military coups, Jihadism and insecurity in Central Sahel. West African Papers [online]. Available from: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/ reports/2024/05/military-coups-jihadism-and-insecurity-in- the-central-sahel_4f7f928f/522f69f1-en.pdf [accessed 23
April 2025] DOI: https://doi.org/10.46576/djtechno.v6i1.6404
Suleiman, M.D., & Onapajo, H.(2022). Why West Africa has had so many coups and how to prevent more. The Conversation DOI: https://doi.org/10.64628/AAJ.7acfcfja7
[online], 15 February. Available from: https://theconversation. com/why-west-africa-has-had-so-many-coups-and-how-to- prevent-more-176577 [accessed 5 December 2024].
Ajala, O. (2023). What caused coup in Niger? Expert outlines 3 driving factors. The Star [online], 31 July. Available from: https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2023-07-31-what-caused- coup-in-niger-expert-outlines-3-driving-factors/ [accessed 5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.64628/AAJ.yuhxgcg4y
December 2024].
United Nations Development Programme. (2023). Soldiers and citizens: Military coups and the need for democratic renewal in Africa. United Nations Development Programme [online], 14 July. Available from: https://www.undp.org/africa/ publications/soldiers-and-citizens. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18356/9789211066197
United States Institute of Peace. (2021). After two coups, Mali needs regional support to bolster democracy. United States Institute of Peace [online], 9 December. Available from: https://www. usip.org/publications/2021/12/after-two-coups-mali-needs-
regional-support-bolster-democracy [accessed 25 March 2025].
UNDP. (2022). Human development summary [online]. Available from: https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/country-insights#/ ranks [accessed 25 March 2025].
Wilén, N. and Williams, P. D. (2018). The African Union and coercive diplomacy: the case of Burundi. The journal of modern African studies [online], 56(4), pp. 673–696. Available from: doi:10.1017/S0022278X18000459 [accessed 25 March 2025]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X18000459
Wing, S.D. (2023). Coups d’État, political legitimacy, and instability in Mali 1. Africa today [online], 70(1). Available from: https:// doi.org/10.1080/03056244.2023.2269693 [accessed 25 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2979/africatoday.70.1.05
March 2025].
Wiking, S. (2024). Averting Security threats through Coup d’états? Identifying the justifications of the two coups of Burkina Faso in 2022 and the presence of securitization. Bachelor thesis, Upsala University.
Widhalm, T. (2024). A culture of coups: an examination of the underlying factors that perpetuate the cycle of military coups in Burkina Faso. Master’s thesis, University of Malta and the George Mason University’s School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Wolfel, R.L., Fairfield, C., Richmond, A., Grannis, R., Womack, S., Moriarity, D. and Wu, E. (2024). Where did you hear that? Narrative competition and societal instability in Burkina Faso. Scientia militaria: south african journal of military studies [online], 52(3), 61-89. Available from: https://doi. org/10.5787/52-3-1483 [accessed 25 March 2025]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5787/52-3-1483
Yusuf, A. (2025). Military coups and africa’s commitment to agenda 2063: Assessing the impact of military coup d’etat on continental development goals [online]. Available from: http:// dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5385934 [accessed 25 July 2025].
Zambakari, C. (2023). Military coup in Niger: The legacies of colonialism and the US War on Terror in West Africa. Conflict Trends [online], 2023(2), pp. 28-34. Available from: doi:10.2139/ssrn.4546350 [accessed 25 March 2025]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4546350
Ziso, E. and Hamandishe, A. L. (2024). Coups and terror in the Sahel: Terrorist groups’ exploitation of state fragility and ungoverned spaces in Burkina Faso and Niger. Journal of Central and Eastern European African studies [online], 4(2), DOI: https://doi.org/10.59569/jceeas.2024.4.2.288
pp. 27-49. Available from: doi: https://doi.org/10.59569/ jceeas.2024.4.2.288 [accessed 6 April 2025].
Zenn, J. (2020). Chronicling the Boko Haram Decade in Nigeria (2010-2020): distinguishing factions through videographic analysis. Small wars & insurgencies [online], 31(6), 1242-1294. Available from: doi: 10.1080/09592318.2020.1776582 [Accessed: March DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2020.1776582
,2025].
Downloads
Article Metrics Graph
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.