Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops
Main Article Content
Keywords
Climate Change, Empirical models, RCP8.5, Yield, Food Security, Crop production
Abstract
This study aims to improve the understanding of the impact changes being experienced in our climate system will have on the level of crop productivity in the immediate period as well as in the nearest future. Nigeria was used as a case study and an observed climatic dataset was obtained and used alongside collected 20 year cassava, rice and soybean yield data to develop models that were applied to estimate future crop yield. Four statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs): NOAA, MIROC5, ICHEC, and NCC performed simulations for the period 1985–2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5. These were used to predict how the yields of cassava, rice and soybean will be in the years 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 for the 36 states in Nigeria and the FCT. 89 Empirical models were developed to estimate the yields of the three crops earlier mentioned across Nigeria with their coefficient of determination (R2) ranging between 15% - 99%. The result showed an increase of 3.91% (P<0.001), 0.08, 1.79 (P<0.1) and a decrease of 0.93% for cassava yield for ICHEC, MIROC, NOAA and NCC respectively. It also projected an increase in yield of 8.88% (P<0.001), 7.77% (P<0.001), 6.62% (P<0.001) and 8.85% (P<0.001) for Rice yield using climatic data from ICHEC, MIROC, NOAA and NCC respectively. Soybean, increase in yield are 2.81% (P<0.01), 5.84% (P<0.001), 11.38 (P<0.001) and 9.06% (P<0.001) for ICHEC, MIROC, NOAA and NCC respectively.
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References
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[21] Paustian, K., Ojima, D., Kelly, R., Lackett, J., Tubiello, F., Brown, R., Izaurralde, C., Jagtap, S. and Li,C. (2000). Crop Model Analysis of Climate and CO2 Effects, Workshop Report. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University.
[22] Cabas, J., Weersink, A. and Olale, E. (2009). Crop Yield Response to Economic, Site and Climatic Variables. Climatic Change, Volume 101, Numbers 3-4, pp599-616.
[23] Olubanjo, O. O. and Alade, A. E. (2018). Effect of Climate Variability on the Yield of Crops in Ondo State, Nigeria. International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Vol. 10(5), pp. 54-63. DOI: 10.5897/IJWREE2018.0783
[24] Dyah, R. P., Kei M. and Bambang, H. T.(2013). The dynamics of rice production in Indonesia 1961–2009. Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences (2013) 12, 27–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jssas.2012.05.002
[25] Boko, M., I. Niang, A. Nyong, C. Vogel, A. Githeko, M. Medany, B. Osman-Elasha, R. Tabo and P. Yanda, (2007): Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 433-467.
[26] Harris, I., Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J. & Lister, D.H. (2014). Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset International Journal of Climatology. 34(3):623–642. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3711
[27] Bum Kim, K., Kwon, H-H., Han, D. (2021). Intercomparison of joint bias correction methods for precipitation and flow from a hydrological perspective, Journal of Hydrology (2021), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127261
[28] Chen, J., Arsenault, R., Brissette, F. P., & Zhang, S. (2021). Climate change impact studies: Should we bias correct climate model outputs or post-process impact model outputs? Water Resources Research, 57, e2020WR028638. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028638
[29] Qian, B., Jong, R. D., Warren, R., Chipanshi, A. & Hill, H. (2009). Statistical spring wheat yield forecasting for the Canadian prairie provinces. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 149, 1022–1031.
[30] Matsumura, K., Gaitan, C. F., Sugimoto, K., Cannon, A. J. and HSIEH, W. W. (2015). Maize yield forecasting by linear regression and artificial neural networks in Jilin, China. Journal of Agricultural Science (2015), 153, 399–410. doi:10.1017/S0021859614000392
[31] Salmi, T., Maatta, A., Anttila, P., Ruoho-Airola, T. and Amnell, T. (2002). Detecting Trends of Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimates. Publications on Air Quality, vol. 31. Helsinki, Finland.
[32] Tubiello, F.N., Rosenzweig, C., Goldberg, R. A., Jagtap, S. and Jones, J.W. (2000). Effects of Climate Change on U.S. Crop Production Part I: Wheat, Potato, Corn, and Citrus. U.S. National Assessment Technical Report.
[33] Mereu, V., Carboni, G., Gallo, A., Cervigni, R., Spano, D. (2015). Impact of climate change on staple food crop production in Nigeria. Climatic Change 132, 321–336. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1428-9
[34] Okoro, S. U., Schickhoffa, U., Boehnera,I. J., Schneiderb, U. A. and Huth, N.I. (2017). Climate impacts on palm oil yields in the Nigerian Niger Delta Global Environmental Change. Europ. J. Agronomy 85 (2017) 38–50. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1428-9
[35] Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D. B., Huang, Y., . . . Ciais, P. (2017). Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114, 9326–9331. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701762114
[36] He,W., Yang, J.Y., Qian, B., Drury, C.F., Hoogenboom, G., He, P., Lapen, D. and Zhou,W. (2018) Climate change impacts on crop yield, soil water balance and nitrate leaching in the semiarid and humid regions of Canada. PLoS ONE 13(11): e0207370. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0207370
[37] Olesen J. E. and Bindi M. (2002). Consequences of Climate Change for European Agricultural Productivity, Land Use and Policy. European Journal of Agronomy. 16(4): 239—262.
[38] Kumar Lakshmi, T. V., Barbosa Humberto, Madhu, S. and Koteswara Rao, K. (2019). Studies on Crop Yields and Their Extreme Value Analysis over India. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4657; doi:10.3390/su11174657
[39] Oguntunde, P.G., Lischeid, G. and Dietrich, O. (2017). Relationship between Rice Yield and Climate Variables in Southwest Nigeria Using Multiple Linear Regression and Support Vector Machine Analysis. International Journal of Biometeorology, 62, 459–469. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1454-6
[2] Oguntunde, P. G., Jan Friesen, Nick van de Giesen and Hubert, H. G. Savenije. (2006). Hydroclimatology of the Volta River Basin in West Africa: Trends and Variability from 1901 to 2006, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 31, 1180 – 1188.
[3] Oguntunde, P. G., Abiodun, B. J. and Lischeid, G. (2011). Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000. Journal of Hydrology, 411, pp. 207–218.
[4] Tubiello, F., Soussana, J. F., Howden, S. M., and Easterling, W. (2007). Crop and Pasture Response to Climate Change. PNAS, Volume 104, pp19686-19690.
[5] IPCC. (2007). Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
[6] Morton, O. (2007). Climate change: is this what it takes to save the world? Nature, Volume 447 (7141), pp132-136.
[7] Ajewole Davies Ojo & Iyanda Sadiq (2010). Effect of Climate Change on Cocoa Yield: A Case of Cocoa Research Institute (CRIN) farm, Oluyole Local Government Ibadan, Oyo state. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, Volume 12, No.1
[8] Valizadeh, J., Ziaei, S.M. and Mazloumzadeh, S.M. (2014). Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study). Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences (2014) 13, 107–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jssas.2013.02.002
[9] Tao, F., Zhang, Z., Liu, j. And Yokozawa, M.(2009). Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 149, 1266–1278.
[10] Roudier, P., Sultan, B., Philippe Quirion, P., Berg, A. (2011). The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say? Global Environmental Change 21, pp1073–1083.
[11] Obot, A. I., Osaretin, F. I. and Mamuro, G. O. (2021). Spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture under different soil groups in Etsako West Local Government Area, Edo State, Nigeria. Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences – Article in Press https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jssas.2021.07.006
[12] Tao, F., Hayashi, Y., Zhang, Z., Sakamoto, T., Yokozawa, M., (2008). Global Warming, Rice Production and Water Use In China: Developing A Probabilistic Assessment. Agric. For. Meteorol. 148, pp94–110.
[13] Adebayo, O.B., Osunbitan, J.A., Adekalu, O.K. and Okunade, D.A. (2009). Evaluation of FAO-56 Penman- Monteith and Temperature Based Models in Estimating Reference Evapotranspiration Using Complete and Limited Data, Application to Nigeria. Agricultural Engineering International: The CIGR Ejournal. Manuscript number 1291. Volume XI.
[14] Ilesanmi, O. A., Oguntunde, P. G. and Olufayo, A. A. (2014). Evaluation of four evapotranspiration models for IITA stations in Ibadan, Onne and Kano, Nigeria. J. Environ. Earth Sci., 4 (5) (2014), pp. 89-97
[15] Ramirez-Villegas, J., Jarvis, A. & Läderach, P. (2013). Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet2011.09.005.
[16] Mora, C., Frazier, A.G., Longman, R.J., Dacks, R.S., Walton, M.M., Tong, E.J., Sanchez, J.J., Kaiser, L.R., et al. (2013). The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature. 502 (7470):183–187. DOI: 10.1038/nature12540.
[17] IPCC. (2013). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
[18] Kang, Y., Khan, S., and Maa, X. (2009). Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield, Crop Water Productivity and Food Security – A Review. Progress in Natural Science 19, 1665–1674. doi:10.1016/j.pnsc.2009.08.001
[19] Rosenzweig, C. and Parry, M.L. (1994). Potential Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply. Nature volume 367, pp133–138.
[20] Parry, M.L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M. and Fischer, G. (2004). Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production Under SRES Emissions And Socio-Economic Scenarios. Global Environmental Change, Volume 14, pp53–67.
[21] Paustian, K., Ojima, D., Kelly, R., Lackett, J., Tubiello, F., Brown, R., Izaurralde, C., Jagtap, S. and Li,C. (2000). Crop Model Analysis of Climate and CO2 Effects, Workshop Report. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University.
[22] Cabas, J., Weersink, A. and Olale, E. (2009). Crop Yield Response to Economic, Site and Climatic Variables. Climatic Change, Volume 101, Numbers 3-4, pp599-616.
[23] Olubanjo, O. O. and Alade, A. E. (2018). Effect of Climate Variability on the Yield of Crops in Ondo State, Nigeria. International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Vol. 10(5), pp. 54-63. DOI: 10.5897/IJWREE2018.0783
[24] Dyah, R. P., Kei M. and Bambang, H. T.(2013). The dynamics of rice production in Indonesia 1961–2009. Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences (2013) 12, 27–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jssas.2012.05.002
[25] Boko, M., I. Niang, A. Nyong, C. Vogel, A. Githeko, M. Medany, B. Osman-Elasha, R. Tabo and P. Yanda, (2007): Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 433-467.
[26] Harris, I., Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J. & Lister, D.H. (2014). Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset International Journal of Climatology. 34(3):623–642. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3711
[27] Bum Kim, K., Kwon, H-H., Han, D. (2021). Intercomparison of joint bias correction methods for precipitation and flow from a hydrological perspective, Journal of Hydrology (2021), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127261
[28] Chen, J., Arsenault, R., Brissette, F. P., & Zhang, S. (2021). Climate change impact studies: Should we bias correct climate model outputs or post-process impact model outputs? Water Resources Research, 57, e2020WR028638. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028638
[29] Qian, B., Jong, R. D., Warren, R., Chipanshi, A. & Hill, H. (2009). Statistical spring wheat yield forecasting for the Canadian prairie provinces. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 149, 1022–1031.
[30] Matsumura, K., Gaitan, C. F., Sugimoto, K., Cannon, A. J. and HSIEH, W. W. (2015). Maize yield forecasting by linear regression and artificial neural networks in Jilin, China. Journal of Agricultural Science (2015), 153, 399–410. doi:10.1017/S0021859614000392
[31] Salmi, T., Maatta, A., Anttila, P., Ruoho-Airola, T. and Amnell, T. (2002). Detecting Trends of Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimates. Publications on Air Quality, vol. 31. Helsinki, Finland.
[32] Tubiello, F.N., Rosenzweig, C., Goldberg, R. A., Jagtap, S. and Jones, J.W. (2000). Effects of Climate Change on U.S. Crop Production Part I: Wheat, Potato, Corn, and Citrus. U.S. National Assessment Technical Report.
[33] Mereu, V., Carboni, G., Gallo, A., Cervigni, R., Spano, D. (2015). Impact of climate change on staple food crop production in Nigeria. Climatic Change 132, 321–336. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1428-9
[34] Okoro, S. U., Schickhoffa, U., Boehnera,I. J., Schneiderb, U. A. and Huth, N.I. (2017). Climate impacts on palm oil yields in the Nigerian Niger Delta Global Environmental Change. Europ. J. Agronomy 85 (2017) 38–50. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1428-9
[35] Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D. B., Huang, Y., . . . Ciais, P. (2017). Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114, 9326–9331. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701762114
[36] He,W., Yang, J.Y., Qian, B., Drury, C.F., Hoogenboom, G., He, P., Lapen, D. and Zhou,W. (2018) Climate change impacts on crop yield, soil water balance and nitrate leaching in the semiarid and humid regions of Canada. PLoS ONE 13(11): e0207370. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0207370
[37] Olesen J. E. and Bindi M. (2002). Consequences of Climate Change for European Agricultural Productivity, Land Use and Policy. European Journal of Agronomy. 16(4): 239—262.
[38] Kumar Lakshmi, T. V., Barbosa Humberto, Madhu, S. and Koteswara Rao, K. (2019). Studies on Crop Yields and Their Extreme Value Analysis over India. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4657; doi:10.3390/su11174657
[39] Oguntunde, P.G., Lischeid, G. and Dietrich, O. (2017). Relationship between Rice Yield and Climate Variables in Southwest Nigeria Using Multiple Linear Regression and Support Vector Machine Analysis. International Journal of Biometeorology, 62, 459–469. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1454-6
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Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops. (2021). Journal of Digital Food, Energy & Water Systems, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.36615/digitalfoodenergywatersystems.v2i2.711
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How to Cite
Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops. (2021). Journal of Digital Food, Energy & Water Systems, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.36615/digitalfoodenergywatersystems.v2i2.711