Electoral Participation and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria A Comparative Analysis of the 2015, 2019 and 2023 Presidential Elections
Main Article Content
Keywords
Quality of Democracy, Voter Turnout, Political Accountability, Political Trust, Political Competition, political campaigns
Abstract
The quality of democracy is largely determined by the level and nature of citizens’ political participation. In Nigeria, however, democratic participation continues to face challenges linked to institutional weakness, electoral malpractice, insecurity, and elite dominance. This study examines patterns of political participation in the 2015, 2019 and 2023 presidential elections to evaluate voter turnout, electoral competitiveness, and citizens’ trust in the electoral process. Employing a comparative descriptive research design, the study drew on documentary and quantitative data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), national survey reports, and scholarly publications. Anchored on political participation and elite theories, the study explored how citizen engagement and elite control shape electoral behaviour and democratic outcomes. Findings reveal a consistent decline in voter turnout across the three election cycles, driven by widespread disillusionment, poor institutional credibility, and the perception that elections seldom influence governance outcomes. The study concludes that the sustainability of democracy in Nigeria depends on strengthening electoral integrity, deepening political accountability, and restoring citizens’ confidence in electoral institutions. It recommends comprehensive electoral reforms, inclusive political processes, and civic education as key strategies for enhancing political participation and consolidating democracy.
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References
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Chiamogu, A. P., Chiamogu, U. P., Nwokoye, A. N., & Emeka Odikpo. (2021). Electoral Democracy and Political Entrepreneurship in Nigeria: Exploring the Social Media Option. Global Journal of Human-Social Science, 21(F5), 77–83
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Falade, D. A. (2014). Political participation in Nigerian democracy: A study of some selected local government areas in Ondo State. Global Journal of Human Social Science, 14(8), 85–94.
Federation of International Women Lawyers (FIDA Nigeria). (2023). Post-election gender report 2023. Abuja: FIDA Nigeria.
Franklin, M. N. (2004). Voter turnout and the dynamics of electoral competition in established democracies since 1945. New York, USA: Cambridge University. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511616884
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Gauba, O. P. (2014). An introduction to political theory (7th ed.). Mumbai, Maharashtra, India: Macmillan India Ltd
Hassan, I., & Yusuf, S. (2015, November 2). Addressing electoral integrity in Africa: Nigeria case study. Africa Portal. https://www.africaportal.org/publications/addressing-electoral- integrity-africa-nigeria-case-study/
Heywood, A. (2007). Politics (3rd ed.). Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
Idowu, O. (2010). Corruption, the Police and the challenges of a free and fair election in Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 12(7), 52-63
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Ita, V. E., & Edet, L. I. (2018). Patterns of political culture and the paradox of political participation in Nigeria: An analytical evaluation. Journal of Politics and Democratization, 3(1), 1-19.
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). (2023). Nigeria elections 2023: Inclusion and participation report. Washington, DC: IFES.
International Republican Institute (IRI). (2023). 2023 Nigeria elections assessment report. Washington, DC: IRI.
Jackman, R. W. (1987). Political institutions and voter turnout in the industrial democracies. American Political Science Review, 81(2), 405-423. https://doi.org/10.2307/1961959
Katsina, A. M. (2016). The politics of presidential elections and democratic consolidation in Nigeria’s fourth republic. A Paper at the National Conference on “The Dynamics of Democratic Practice in Nigeria: 1999–2015” by the Aminu Kano Center for Democratic Research, Mambayya House, Bayero University, Kano
Kura, S. T. B. (2011). Political parties and democracy in Nigeria: Candidate selection, campaign and party financing in people’s democratic party. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 13(6), 268-298.
Levitsky, S., & Way, L. A. (2010). Competitive authoritarianism: Hybrid regimes after the Cold War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511781353
Mahmud, S. S. (2015). The 2015 general elections: Voter turnout, voting behaviour and democratic consolidation in Nigeria. Paper presented at the Post-Election Conference of the Electoral Institute, Abuja.
McClosky, H. (1968). Political participation. In D.L. Sills (ed.), International Encyclopaedia of the Social Sciences, Vol. 12. New York, USA: Macmillan Co. & Free Press
Milbrath, L. W. (1981). Political participation. In S.L. Long (ed.), The Handbook of Political Behaviour. Boston, Massachusetts, USA: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-3878-9_4
Mills, C. W. (1956). The power elite. New York, NY: Oxford University Press
National Democratic Institute (2012). Final report on the 2011 Nigerian general elections. Washington, DC: National Democratic Institute for International Affairs
Norris, P. (2014). Why electoral integrity matters. Cambridge: Cambridge University. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107280861
Nwankwo, C. F., & Okafor, U. P. (2018). Voting in Nigeria: Determinants of turnout in the 2015 presidential election. Statistics, Politics and Policy, 8(2), 249 - 260. https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2017-0010
Nwankwo, C. F., Okafor, P. U., & Asuoha, G. C. (2017). Principal component analysis of factors determining voter abstention in South-Eastern Nigeria. Journal of Pan African Studies, 10(3), 249–273.
Obiora, C. A., & Chiamogu, P. A. (2020). The 2019 general elections and intra-party conflicts in Nigeria: A cross-sectional analysis of APC, APGA and PDP. Socialscientia Journal of the Social Sciences and Humanities, 5(2), 23-42.
Ojo, O. M. (2014). Electoral security and democratic consolidation in Nigeria. In G. Ikuejube and D.Z. Olupayimo (eds.), Nigeria’s Internal Security Challenges: Strategies for Sustainable Development. 1-28. Ibadan: John Archers.
Omodia, S. M. (2010). Political parties and party politics in the Nigerian Fourth Republic. Trakia Journal of Sciences, 8(3), 65-69
Omotola, J. S. (2010). Elections and democratic transition in Nigeria under the Fourth Republic. African Affairs, 109(437), 535–553. https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adq029
Oni, S., Chidozie, F. C., & Agbude, A. G. (2013). Electoral politics in the fourth republic of Nigeria’s democratic governance. Developing Country Studies, 3(12), 48-56
Osondu, M. O. (2014). Democracy and political participation in Nigeria: The case of Imo state in the 2007 general elections. International Journal of Development and Management Review (INJODEMAR), 9(1), 34-49.
Pareto, V. (1935). The mind and society. New York, NY: Harcourt Brace
Parvin, P. (2018). Democracy without participation: A new politics for a disengaged era. Res Publica, 24, 31–52. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11158-017-9382-1
Pildes, R. H. (2006). The constitution and political competition. Nova Law Review, 30(2), 1- 26.
Powell, G. B. Jr. (2000). Elections as instruments of democracy: Majoritarian and proportional visions. New Haven and London: Yale University Press.
Powell, G. B., Jr. (2004). The quality of democracy: The chain of responsiveness. Journal of Democracy, 15(4), 91-105. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2004.0070.
Przeworski, A., & Limongi, F. (1993). Political regimes and economic growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(3), 51–69. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.7.3.51
Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M. E. Cheibub, J. A. & Limongi, F. (2000). Democracy and development. Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804946
Resnick, D., & Van de Walle, N. (2013). Democratic trajectories in Africa: Unravelling the impact of foreign aid. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199686285.001.0001
Reynolds, A. (2009). Elections, electoral systems, and conflict in Africa. The Brown Journal of World Affairs, 16(1), 75-83.
Rudolph, L., & Däubler, T. (2015). Holding individual representatives accountable: The role of electoral systems. The Journal of Politics, 78(3), 746-762. https://doi.org/10.1086/685378
Rudolph, T. J., & Evans, J. (2005). Political trust, ideology, and public support for government spending. American Journal of Political Science, 49(3), 660 – 671. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2005.00148.x
Verba, S., Schlozman, K. L., & Brady, H. E. (1995). Voice and equality: Civic voluntarism in American politics. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1pnc1k7
Yiaga Africa. (2023). Nigeria’s 2023 general elections: Post-election statement. Abuja: Yiaga Africa.
Pacheco, J. S. (2008). Political socialization in context: The effect of political competition on youth voter turnout. Political Behaviour, 30, 415–436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-008-9057-x
Shaukat, M. (2019). Too close to call: Electoral competition and politician behaviour in India. https://economics.mit.edu/files/16553
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Jan 12, 2026
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Electoral Participation and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria: A Comparative Analysis of the 2015, 2019 and 2023 Presidential Elections. (2026). African Journal of Political Science, 13(2), 82-100. https://doi.org/10.36615/h6ksec53
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Author Biography
Uchechukwu P. Chiamogu, Federal Polytechnic Oko
Uchechukwu P. Chiamogu is a lecturer in the Department of Public Administration, Federal Polytechnic Oko Anambra State Nigeria. She is a member of Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA) and the International Political Science Association (IPSA). She has published in both local and international journals in the areas of governance, public policy and administration, electoral democracy and political theory and methodology
How to Cite
Electoral Participation and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria: A Comparative Analysis of the 2015, 2019 and 2023 Presidential Elections. (2026). African Journal of Political Science, 13(2), 82-100. https://doi.org/10.36615/h6ksec53
